Week two of my boxing betting previews, and a look back at last weeks results sees me 5-0 in terms of picking the right boxer to win. A few anomalies in the results, Martin Murray perhaps should have beaten Sergio Martinez on point, and Nate Campbell’s injury pull-out at the end of round four versus Terry Flannigan would have mucked up some accumulators.
Saturday night also saw the end, at least at the moment, of Audley Harrison’s career, after he was knocked out in round one by Deontay Wilder. Coral are currently offering odds of around 10/1 for A-Force to fight professionally again in 2013, and I think that’s pretty good value.
This week I’ll be focusing on three fights from this weekend’s action, starting in Germany with the Heavyweights.
Wladimir Klitschko (59-3) v Francesco Pianeta (28-0-1)
The WBO/IBF and IBO titles are on the line here, as Wladimir aims to win his 60th professional fight. The Italian Pianeta is very much an underdog, and that is very much reflected in the betting with odds of up to 20/1 available for Pianeta to win the fight outright.
Klitschko is undefeated since 2004, and has won seven of his last nine via stoppage, three defeats were all by stoppage, in rounds five, two and eleven albeit in 2004, 2003 and 1998, a lifetime ago in boxing terms. Pianeta has only stopped three of his last eight opponents which won’t give him a lot of confidence in his punching power. Many feel that the only way Wladimir can lose is via knockout, and it seems unlikely that Pianeta possesses enough firepower to break the Ukrainian down.
Trying to find any value on Wladimir is very hard, but I like the look of him winning in the latter rounds of the fight. You have to go back to 2007 to find Wladimir stopping someone earlier than the fourth round. His last stoppage wins have been in rounds six, four, ten, twelve, nine, seven, eleven and six. You can get odds of 10/1 for Wladimir to finish the fight in rounds seven and eight, or up to 14/1 and 16/1 if you think the stoppage will come in rounds such as ten or eleven.
If Pianeta can find the golden shot, he is 125/1 to win in any of the first three rounds, with up to 300/1 to win in the latter rounds. As the cliche goes, this is Heavyweight boxing, and anything can happen, so a couple of quid on some round betting for Pianeta might be a good insurance deal.
It’s an obvious tip, but my pick is for Wladimir Klitschko to win the fight, and I think that him winning via stoppage between rounds 5-8 at 13/8 is a good value suggestion.
Mike Perez (18-0) v Travis Walker (39-9-1)
The undercard sees the Irish based Cuban Mike Perez fighting. He has had an intriguing career so far, which is another way of saying incredibly frustrating. Perez made his debut back in 2008, and is undefeated in his eighteen fights, with twelve knockout wins, but his professional career has been blighted by inactivity. He hasn’t fought since December 2011 when he convincingly outpointed Friday Ahunanya in California. He is most known for winning a Heavyweight Prizefighter tournament in May 2011, where he beat Kertson Manswell, Gregory Tony and Tye Fields in one night, looking an absolute beast in the process.
Travis Walker was also last seen in a Prizefighter tournament, he lost in the first round of the last version of the show, losing a split decision to Derric Rossy. Walker was undefeated in his first 26 professional fights, but has turned into somewhat of a journeyman, and has lost two of his last three fights.
I think the only way this fight will end will be via a stoppage. Walker has stopped 31 of his 39 victims, while Perez definitely has power himself. I’m favourite Perez despite his inactivity, as Walker has been stopped six times in his career, twice in the first round, and never after round six.
My theory will be that Perez will be lacking ring fitness and will be looking to finish the fight early. All twelve of Perez’s stoppage wins have come within three rounds, with ten of them coming in the first round.
My pick is for Mike Perez to win via stoppage, and you can get under 7.5 rounds at 10/13 on Bet365.
Floyd Mayweather (43-0) v Robert Guerrero (31-1-1)
Over in Las Vegas, at around 5am UK time and on Cinco De Mayo, the American-Mexican Robert Guerrero has the toughest fight of his career against the undefeated superstar of boxing, Floyd Mayweather.
A lot has been made of Mayweather’s age, and at 36 he will certainly be lacking at least a fragment of his speed, reflexes and athleticism. His last fight against Miguel Cotto was ultimately won via a wide points decision, but some observers noted how he was marked up at the end of the fight, and was hit more than normal.
Guerrero is a southpaw, whose lone loss was a split decision to Gamaliel Diaz back in 2005 which he avenged in 2006. Like Mayweather, he has come up through the weights in his professional career. He first competed at Featherweight, and the Mayweather bout will be just his third fight at Welterweight. His last fight was back in November, when he knocked Andre Berto down in the first two rounds before winning a closer than expected points decision to win the interim WBC Welterweight title, which these two fighters will be competing for.
I would expect this to go the distance. Guerrero’s last five fights have gone the distance, and he last stopped an opponent in April 2010. Mayweather has only stopped two of his last eight opponents, Victor Ortiz in 2011, and Ricky Hatton in 2007.
Guerrero got in trouble recently for attempting to board a plane with a gun, and his dad yelled at Mayweather in the final press conference. Is Guerrero mentally ready for this fight?
As a teaser to add to the mix, it might be worth a little wager for there to be a knockdown in the first round. Bwin are offering around 8/1 in that market. Guerrero started fast against Andre Berto and knocked him down in the first round, while Mayweather was visibly shaken via an early Shane Mosely punch in May 2010. Guerrero to win via KO or TKO is around 16/1
Based on everything, my prediction is for Floyd Mayweather to defeat Robert Guerrero via points, and the best odds for that at the moment is around 8/11.
My predictions for week two:
Wladimir Klitschko to stop Francesco Pianeta between rounds 5-8
Mike Perez to stop Travis Walker inside three rounds
Floyd Mayweather to defeat Robert Guerrero via points.
A treble on Wladimir Klitschko to win in rounds four to six, Perez and Walker to be under 7.5 rounds, and Mayweather to win via decision has odds of around 8/1 on Bet 365.
The Klitschko/Pianeta and Perez/Walker fights will be shown on ESPN in the UK, while Mayweather/Guerrero will be on Boxnation. I get the best odds aggregated from Oddschecker, remember to bet sensibly.